J.J. Spaun hasn’t been congratulated every second since winning the U.S. Open last month — but it’s seemingly been close, as evidenced at last week’s Scottish Open, where he was asked the last time someone applauded him for his victory.
“Two seconds ago,” Spaun said.
Such is life when you win, you win your first major and when you break through, all of which Spaun achieved. Before the U.S. Open, the 13-year pro had won just once on the PGA Tour, but he birdied his 71st and 72nd holes at Oakmont and finished as the only player to break par for the week.
Still, Spaun’s had to climb. When asked last week about goal-setting, he described his ascent this way:
“I need to play the AJGA and win so I can get a scholarship to play in college and win out there so I can gain some sort of traction professionally and get starts there. It’s just always like, I just played and progressed, one foot in front of the other. And next thing you know, I am playing Division I; and next thing you know, I am turning pro and getting hope to chase the dream; and next thing you know, I’m on Korn Ferry; and next thing you know, I’m on Tour.”
And now he’s a major winner — and a major winner who opened the week of his major win with longer odds, due in part to his journey. Spaun started the U.S. Open with 100-1 odds to win, according to golfodds.com — and he makes you at least think that someone similar could do something similar at this week’s Open Championship.
Whom could that be? Some ideas are below, where members of our staff have each made a long-shot selection to assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook. It’s an enjoyable endeavor for us. Deploy it as you wish.
On to our analysis.
2025 Open Championship sleeper picks to watch
Alan Bastable
Sleeper pick: Dustin Johnson, +18,000. Great links player and carded the round of the week (second-round 65) at LIV Andalucia. Feels like one of these major weeks where he might rewind the clock and remember deep down he has more raw talent than most of his peers.
Josh Berhow
Sleeper pick: Sepp Straka, +4,500. The good? He has two wins this season. The bad? He’s missed the cut in all three majors this year. Although that’s why we can properly place him in the sleeper category. He tied for 22nd at the Open last year and tied for second the year before. He’s also coming off a solid week at the Scottish Open. He’s a good one to take a flier on.
Dylan Dethier
Sleeper pick: Harry Hall, +11,000. Hall has been quietly putting together a hell of a summer; he enters the Scottish Open on a run of six consecutive top-25s. Will his elite putting translate across the pond? It sure did when he qualified for this event last week. Some others: I’ve been happily on Matthew Jordan the past couple Opens and he’s finished T10 back-to-back years; at 400-1, he’s worth consideration. Add in Lucas Glover (250-1) to round out your long shots. Add Daniel Berger and Sepp Straka if you’re looking for a few midfielders. Happy hunting!
Jack Hirsh
Sleeper pick: Ben Griffin, +6,600. Seems as though everyone forgot that Ben Griffin was nearly as hot in April and May as Scottie Scheffler. I like his game for links golf.
Kris McCormack
Sleeper pick: Robert MacIntyre, +2,400. MacIntyre’s been trending all year and knows how to handle links golf. He’s tough, confident and not afraid of the big pressure moments. Exactly the kind of guy who could crash the party at Portrush.
Zephyr Melton
How often favorites win tournaments (and when to bet on them)
Sleeper pick: Ryan Fox, +6,500. He’s got two wins already this year and hasn’t finished outside the top 30 since early May. Why not bet on the Kiwi as a long-shot pick?
Nick Piastowski
Sleeper pick: Padraig Harrington, +25,000. At these odds, why not? The Irishman’s motivated. He’s in form, too, after his U.S. Senior Open win. And he’s a two-time Open winner.
Josh Schrock
Sleeper pick: Rickie Fowler, +18,000. Rickie has been quietly playing some pretty good golf outside of an MC at the Rocket Classic. He’s a good links player who I think still has one or two quality major showings left in him. Why not now?
Josh Sens
Sleeper pick: Marc Leishman, +12,500. By his own account, he’s been playing some of the best golf of his life. He showed some good form at Oakmont. And like a lot of Aussies, he’s no stranger to the bouncy links golf of the Open.
Matt Ziance
Sleeper pick: Ryan Fox, +6,500. With eight career international wins under his belt and his two PGA Tour wins earlier this season, Fox is in prime condition to shock and awe at Royal Portrush. The New Zealand native will feel right at home with the course (and weather) next week. Don’t be surprised if Ryan Fox lifts the Claret Jug on Sunday.
