Tour Confidential: Who needs an Open Championship win the most?

Check in every week for the unfiltered opinions of our writers and editors as they break down the hottest topics in the sport, and join the conversation by tweeting us at @golf_com. This week, we discuss Rory McIlroy’s return to Royal Portrush, LIV’s renewed OWGR quest and look ahead to the Open Championship.

The final major of the year, the 2025 Open Championship, kicks off this week at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland. Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and J.J. Spaun have already claimed major titles this year, but a long list of stars have not. Make your case: which pro will be kicking themselves the most if they don’t win this week and walk away from 2025 without a major?

Sean Zak, senior writer (@sean_zak): Jon Rahm. He’s always on the short list of guys who enter the week with sizable public expectations. The other guys on that short list? They’ve all won one in the last 24 months. Rahm hasn’t. And he’s gone T7, T8, T14, T7 in his last four majors. Contending isn’t enough. 

James Colgan, news and features editor (@jamescolgan26): Rahm is a great answer. Though he’s far from entering a major “drought,” a great golfer only has so many prime years. Another pair of players in their prime: Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth. These two guys were once the future of American golf. A loss in Portrush would send each golfer’s age-31 season out on a dour note. 

Zephyr Melton, assistant editor (@zephyrmelton): Great selections above, so I will add Collin Morikawa. After the start he got off to in his career, it felt like he could be the greatest major champ of his generation. He’s played solid golf this season, but if he doesn’t win over the next few weeks, his winless drought will extend to two years, and his major-less drought to four.

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The last time The Open was at Royal Portrush, in 2019, McIlroy hit his opening tee shot O.B. and made an 8 on the first hole. He missed the cut in his return to home soil and at a venue where he holds the course record. Six years later, he’s back and again with lofty expectations. Will this year be different? Will the Masters title in his pocket help? Do you trust him this week?

Zak: This year will definitely be different. McIlroy was a different golfer then. He’d be the first to tell you. I trust him to strike it well, drive it well and probably putt it well on these slower greens. Add it all up, and he should finish in the top 15. Do I trust him to win with an entire country on his back? That feels like a lot. 

Colgan: It’s been a weird year for Rory, but his game is trending again. A win in Portrush would be good news for the Hollywood (two Ls) execs dreaming up a biopic on McIlroy’s career Grand Slam season. I think a top-7 finish sounds more likely.

Melton: It feels likely he’ll be in the mix, but expecting a victory is a stretch. I don’t expect him to flame out like he did in 2019, but I also don’t expect a Claret Jug in his hands come Sunday.

What’s one juicy Open Championship storyline you are monitoring this week?

Zak: It may not feel new, but it is juicy. Someone will clinch their Ryder Cup spot this week. Maybe not literally, in the way Scottie Scheffler has mathematically guaranteed it — but the figurative rubber stamp will be on offer at Portrush. There are just so many points available that players start to force a captain’s hands. I’m looking at the likes of, say, Lucas Glover, who only recently crept onto the radar. He’s ranked 16th and finished in the top 20 at Portrush in 2019.  

Colgan: Promise I’ll stop parroting Sean after this question, but Keegan Bradley could make the Ryder Cup playing captain question totally inevitable this weekend in a way nobody foresaw in January.

Melton: I’ll be interested to see how Scottie Scheffler fares. Of all the major championships, this has been the one where he’s had the least success. It feels like only a matter of time before he wins one of these, but as of yet, we’re still left waiting.

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Grace Kim put together one of the most epic finishes of the year to beat World No. 2 Jeeno Thitikul on the second playoff hole to win the Evian Championship and claim her first major title. The 24-year-old Australian eagled the 72nd hole to get into a playoff, chipped in for birdie on the first playoff hole after an approach went into the water and then eagled the second playoff hole for the win. What did you think of Kim’s play down the stretch, and was this the best LPGA finish of the year?

Zak: Man, it’s just another example of why pro golfers never think they’re out of tournaments. They just don’t! Not until the final approach shot, at least. The way it went down, though, this felt pre-ordained. The hole-out in the playoff, to beat No. 2 in the world? It was unquestionably the best finish of the season. 

Colgan: Rollercoaster major championship golf is by FAR the most entertaining golf on television. Grace Kim clearly understands that, and I think new LPGA commish Craig Kessler would be quick to admit he’d love a few more finishes like that on national TV.

Melton: You’d be hard-pressed to come up with another finish as good as that one over the last few seasons. Kim was absolutely nails coming down the stretch going eagle, (chip-in) birdie, eagle the three times she played No. 18 in regulation and extra holes. How about that performance to lock up a major title? 

After withdrawing an application in 2024, LIV Golf has again applied for Official World Golf Ranking points, a crucial feather needed to allow major pathways for its players. Why might this time be any different?

Zak: LIV promised they’ve made some necessary amendments. I suppose we have to take them at their word? An educated guess would be a completely revamped qualification methodology, allowing more people to play their way onto the tour, even on a week-to-week basis. That’s a major sticking point with OWGR acceptance. You can’t be a closed shop. And to this point, LIV has been pretty closed off. 

Colgan: This time might be different because the long-term legitimacy of the OWGR as a ranking system depends upon LIV’s inclusion. I don’t think what the upstarts have done is right re: OWGR eligibility, and I think there should be work done to weigh LIV fairly, considering it is an obviously inferior product. If the point of the OWGR is purely to decipher major championship eligibility, I’m cool having a longer conversation about platforming LIV. But if the point of the OWGR is to rank the best golfers in the world, it would be smart to be inclusive of the tour with a handful of top 50 players. 

Melton: As Sean said, LIV promised they’d made the necessary changes to satisfy the criteria. Should we believe them? Who knows. I — like many golf fans — am pretty fatigued by the entire ordeal at this point.